Distinguished guests, esteemed members of civil society organizations, and respected members of the press, Compliments of the Seasons! We felicitate with Nigerians of all faiths during this yuletide season and wish all Nigerians a prosperous 2025.

On behalf of the Board of Directors and staff, I warmly welcome you to this end-of-the-year State of the Nation press briefing. CHRICED’s State of the Nation address is our flagship initiative for providing feedback on critical issues facing Nigeria and Nigerians. Our goal is to galvanize actions among government and appointees, citizen networks, and donor partners, locally and internationally. 

Year 2024 in Retrospect: Insights on the State of the Nation

As a human rights organization, values are central to our identity at CHRICED. We prioritize justice as one of our cardinal values. Justice brings joy to a nation and is a key ingredient for accomplishing Nigeria’s broad aspirations of “Unity and Faith, Peace and Progress.” 

President Tinubu’s declaration in his 2024 January 1, New Year speech – “to build a fair and equitable society and close the widening inequality” was a timely acknowledgment and reminder of the urgent need for justice in Nigeria. The President promised to “work diligently to make sure every Nigerian feels the impact of their government.” In this State of the Nation briefing, we share our reflections on the critical issues confronting the nation and their connection to the President’s promise at the very beginning of the year. 

Cost of living is threatening human lives 

One of the biggest issues confronting the majority of Nigerians is the cost of living. More than 18 months under President Tinubu’s administration, Nigerians are worse off. The headline inflation, which stood at 29.90 percent in January 2024, rose to 34.60 percent by the end of November. The cost of food, transportation, fuel, drugs, and key essential supplies continue to soar beyond the reach of ordinary Nigerians. For millions of Nigerians, securing enough food for a single meal each day has become increasingly difficultThe government’s removal of the fuel subsidy in 2023 intensified the problem, triggering a dramatic rise in prices that, in turn, led to higher transport costs for goods. This sudden rise in transportation costs has affected the entire food supply chain, making even staple foods unaffordable for many households. A recent report from the National Human Rights Commission highlights the dire consequences of these economic difficulties, revealing that poverty has led some men to abandon their families.. This abandonment not only exacerbates the plight of those left behind but also contributes to a cycle of poverty that is difficult to escape. The social fabric of communities is fraying as economic pressures mount, leading to increased crime rates and social unrest as individuals struggle to survive. President Tinubu’s promise to cultivate 500,000 hectares of farmlands across the country appears not to have made any impact. The government announced a 6-month food importation program that seems not to have taken off several months after it was announced. The promised national wheat development program and several policy announcements related to food production and food security are yet to be seen as Nigerians continue to struggle and languish in hunger and penury. Where are the President’s promises?

Devaluating the Naira without protecting the poor. 

The Naira, Nigeria’s national currency, has been on a troubling trajectory, experiencing a persistent decline in value against several prominent global currencies. At the beginning of the year 2024, the Naira, which was exchanged at approximately N900 to the US dollar, closed off at over N1,600 to the US dollar due to the floating policy of President Tinubu. While the administration may have succeeded in tackling arbitrage associated with the controlled exchange rate, the new free market and floating policy have become the administration’s albatross. Floating the Naira immediately drove up the prices of imported goods and services, devastating small businesses and low-income households due to Nigeria’s import-dependent economy, according to Foreign Policy Magazine. As the Naira continues to weaken against the dollar, the cost of imported goods has also increased, taking many essential items further out of reach of poor Nigerians. The combined effects of the subsidy removal and the government’s floating exchange rate policy brought impoverishment to most of the Nigerian people. President Tinubu’s response is nothing short of shambolic! Sharing truckloads of rice and other staples to state governments brought no reprieve to the people. Just as the many handouts have not been accounted for by the different ministries, departments and agencies. We would like to remind the President that palliatives are short-term, immediate responses and cannot replace well-thought-out social protection policies and programs that are urgently required to tame the spread of hunger and inequality. The government inherited 133million multi-dimensionally poor Nigerians. With the devastation brought by the twin policy of subsidy removal and exchange rate floating, it is clear that the President and his cabinet never thought through these policies. Neither do they have any clear plan for protecting the 133 million vulnerable, multi-dimensionally poor population the administration inherited from former President Buhari. We are concerned that as more Nigerians get hauled into poverty, unemployment, hunger, and malnutrition are likely to escalate with severe consequences for health spending, education, and public safety and stability in the country. 

Resurgence of Cash Scarcity

The recent resurgence of cash scarcity across many urban centers serves as evidence of a return of the painful experiences faced by many Nigerians during the Buhari administration, a period marked by significant difficulties in accessing cash for daily needs. Under the Tinubu administration, the situation appears to have taken a turn for the worse, as citizens find themselves in a position where they must purchase Naira from Point of Sale (POS) operators as banks ration withdrawals and automated teller machines (ATMs) fail to dispense. It is inhuman and deeply irresponsible to further burden the struggling poor Nigerians with an additional ‘seasonal scarcity’ of cash. We are aware of several CBN memos and directives to banks, but we are equally mindful of the lax sanctions on these banks, which allow impunity in the banking sector. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) must go beyond the mere release of instructions and guidelines and make extra efforts to implement its directives and bring banks to account. We welcome the ‘concerns’ expressed by the House Committee on banking regulations, but we urge the Committee to go beyond its usual ‘investigative ad-hoc committee’, which never results in a permanent solution to any problem. 

Tax Reform Bill

The federal government has unveiled a controversial Tax Reform bill in the face of ongoing economic challenges. President Tinubu has remained adamant about pressing on the bill while ignoring public calls for more debates and discussions. Among several provisions, the bill seeks to progressively increase the Value Added Tax (VAT) from 7.5% to 15% by 2030. Such a significant hike in VAT would lead to a sharp rise in the prices of essential goods and services and further worsen the economic hardship facing many Nigerians. The VAT provisions have become deeply politicized, leading to divisions in the legislative houses along regional and religious lines, and notable figures have expressed concerns over the new tax regime’s potential economic, political, and social implications. Critics argue that the tax reform is regressive and counterproductive, as it threatens to push more Nigerians into multidimensional poverty. Supporters for the bill have compelling arguments as well, and it is our considered opinion that the national assembly opens up the bill for broader consultations and debates in the best interest of the citizens and to ensure policy congruence between the intendments of the bill and the urgent need for social protections for the vulnerable populations across Nigeria. 

President Tinubu’s 49.7 Trillion Naira Budget

On December 18, 2024, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu presented the 2025 budget proposal of N49.7 trillion to the 10th National Assembly. The government anticipates an aggregated revenue of N36.35 trillion and a deficit of N13.39 through debt financing of N9.28 trillion, asset sales and privatization, N312b, and multilateral/bilateral project loans, N3.8 trillion). The single largest expenditure is N16.33 trillion (or 45% of aggregated revenue) for debt servicing, larger than the four largest sectoral allocations combined – defense and security, N4.91 trillion, infrastructure, N4.06 trillion, education – N3.52 trillion, and health services). This budget proposal fails to inspire confidence for 2025 on the basis of what we consider the absence of any commitment to social justice. For example, the summary breakdown of the budget available on the Ministry of Budget and Economic Planning website indicates that N111 billion is proposed for the Presidency. This is more than the allocations to power, environment, humanitarian affairs and poverty alleviation, justice, trade and investment, transportation, livestock, water resources, and sanitation, among other critical sectors considered pro-poor and pro-people. The logic of how the Tinubu administration hopes to achieve development is evident from the excessive allocations to security-related sectors. The substantial budget allocations to security sectors imply that the Tinubu administration interprets the insecurity across Nigeria as strictly a ‘security challenge.’ Several articles on insecurity in Nigeria have acknowledged the diversity of security challenges and the key drivers, including lack of justice and human development deficits. As a result, Nigeria’s security agencies and response programs face huge trust deficits that limit citizens’ participation, collaboration, and coordination across violence types and regions. 

As the most critical expression of the government’s policy direction, the Tinubu administration appears to have towed previous failures by the continuing prioritization of allocations to security sectors. We think the administration must prioritize agriculture and food insecurity, environmental security, water and sanitation, transportation, and power as the engine for economic transformation, urgently needed to reverse the debilitating hunger and deprivation facing millions of Nigerians. Too many Nigerians continue to be unduly exposed to hunger as a direct consequence of President Tinubu’s subsidy removal and floating exchange rate; we think the administration must subject itself to some deep and honest reflections on the performance of its economic policies to avoid a continuation of the suffering witnessed in 2024 and chart a new experience for the people in 2025. 

The Tinubu administration seems set to further balloon Nigeria’s debt. As of June 2023, when Tinubu came into office, the public debt balance stood at about N87.3 trillion. Since then, the balance has grown to N134.2 trillion (as of June 2024). Nigerians would remember that President Tinubu, in his campaign, had berated former President Buhari’s administration’s penchant for debt. In one of the newspapers, he noted that debt servicing was consuming Nigeria’s ‘meager’ resources, thereby locking the economy in a vicious cycle of borrowing simply to service debts with almost no scope for socio-economic development. He promised, then, “to end the cycle.” It is ironic that the President has ramped up Nigeria’s debt profile by a staggering N46.9 trillion in just a year, and still counting based on the deficit financing plan proposed for the 2025 budget. 

Edo, Ondo and Local Government Elections Across the States: A Mockery of Democracy 

The recent off-cycle elections held in Edo and Ondo States are the most prominent expressions of the crisis facing credible elections and the possibility of an independent election umpire in Nigeria. Nigeria’s democracy stands at a crossroads with the dangerous tendency of the political class to ‘capture’ power by all means. Nigerians must be worried by the new one-party tendencies visible across the 36 states, where every ruling party openly crowds out and gags every semblance of opposition, including vocal civil society organizations, activists, and media organizations. 

Citizens had hoped that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), security agencies, political parties, and their candidates would have learned from the myriad issues that plagued the 2023 general elections. This hope was rooted in a desire for a renewed commitment to democratic norms and practices that would ensure the integrity of the electoral process. Regrettably, this expectation was not realized, as a troubling array of electoral misconduct marred the elections in Edo and Ondo.

Reports from various observers and citizen groups indicate that widespread irregularities, including voter intimidation, ballot box snatching, vote buying and open manipulation of results, characterized the elections. These actions undermine the credibility of the electoral process and erode public trust in the institutions meant to uphold democracy. The role of security agencies, which were expected to maintain order and protect the rights of voters, was called into question in many voting locations as citizens reported feeling unsafe and vulnerable at polling stations. This atmosphere of fear and coercion is antithetical to the principles of democracy, which should guarantee citizens the right to vote freely and without duress.

Furthermore, the local government elections conducted across various states can only be described as a travesty of democracy. In nearly all instances, ruling parties secure all available positions, effectively transforming what should have been a competitive electoral process into a mere selection exercise. This phenomenon raises serious concerns about the legitimacy of the electoral outcomes and the extent to which the voices of the electorate are being silenced. When elections are predetermined and devoid of genuine competition, the very essence of democracy is compromised, leading to a governance structure that lacks accountability and responsiveness to the needs of the populace.

The institutionalization of electoral fraud in Nigeria’s election processes is a deeply troubling trend that must be addressed urgently. It reflects a broader systemic failure that disenfranchises voters and perpetuates a cycle of impunity among political actors. The lack of meaningful consequences for electoral malpractice clearly shows that such behavior is tolerated, if not encouraged, within the political landscape. This environment stifles democratic development and undermines the rule of law, leaving citizens disillusioned and disengaged from the political process.

Gale of Defection by Opposition Legislators to the Ruling Party

The political landscape in Rivers State has become increasingly tumultuous following the defection of 27 lawmakers, creating an atmosphere of uncertainty and unrest. This mass defection has destabilized the local political scene and sparked a broader trend of defections from opposition parties within the National Assembly to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). This shift raises significant concerns about the health of Nigeria’s democracy and the principles of political pluralism.

The Resource Centre for Human Rights and Civic Education (CHRICED) recognizes and respects individuals’ fundamental right to freely choose their political affiliations. Political diversity is a cornerstone of democratic governance, allowing a range of voices and perspectives to be represented in the political arena. However, the current wave of defections appears to be consolidating power within a single party, which could lead to the erosion of democratic norms and practices.

As more lawmakers abandon their original parties in favor of the APC, there is a growing fear that this trend may culminate in the establishment of a one-party system. Such a scenario would diminish the effectiveness of opposition parties, stifle political discourse, and limit the electorate’s choices. A healthy democracy thrives on competition, debate, and the ability of citizens to hold their leaders accountable. The diminishing presence of opposition voices could lead to complacency within the ruling party, reducing the incentive to address the needs and concerns of the populace.

If this trend of defections continues unchecked, the repercussions could be severe. A lack of political competition may result in less responsive governance to the people’s needs, increased corruption, and a general decline in public trust in political institutions. Furthermore, the marginalization of opposition parties could lead to social unrest, as disenfranchised citizens may feel that their voices are not being heard or represented.

Shrinking Civic Space 

In civic space, the year has also seen a troubling trend. The space for civil society and grassroots movements has been increasingly stifled, with restrictions on freedom of expression and assembly. Activists and ordinary citizens alike have faced intimidation and harassment for speaking out against the government’s policies. This suppression of dissent has created an atmosphere of fear, further discouraging meaningful dialogue and participation in the democratic process. The indiscriminate clampdown, arrest, and detention of protesters (including minors) for protesting the hash economic policies is one of the biggest lows of the Tinubu administration in this outgoing year. The administration’s handling of protests is a sad reminder of the dark days of the late Sanni Abacha and other dictators who ruled the country with iron fists while indiscriminately violating constitutionally guaranteed freedoms and rights. It is disturbing to see this turn of events under President Tinubu, who was once associated with the pro-democracy movement in Nigeria. 

Judicial Rot and Repression of Dele Farotimi

CHRICED is deeply concerned that in the case of Barrister Dele Farotimi and Chief Are Afe Babalola, the judiciary, and the police have not demonstrated neutrality and fairness. Though the matter is before the court, we may not be able to comment extensively on it; however, how the case has been handled so far shows a lack of equity and fair play in the treatment of Mr. Farotimi. The conduct of the case showed an attempt to silence Farotimi for demonstrating the boldness to speak out against corruption in Nigeria’s criminal justice system.

For us at CHRICED, who have watched closely the conduct of the Nigerian judiciary, persons who have not experienced a miscarriage of justice within the Nigerian judiciary should express profound gratitude to God for their fortunate circumstances. The current State of the judiciary is not just concerning; it is profoundly troubling and indicative of a system in disarray. From the moment one steps into the registry to the interactions with bailiffs and judges, it becomes painfully clear that corruption permeates every level of the judicial process. It is nearly impossible to engage with any part of the judiciary without encountering demands for payment, whether overt or subtle. This pervasive issue has led to the unfortunate characterization of Nigerian courts as transactional entities, where “justice” is not a right afforded to all but a commodity available only to those who can afford to pay for it.

In this context, Dele Farotimi has emerged as a beacon of courage, bravely articulating the harsh realities of our judicial system. His insights resonate widely, and the truth he speaks is acknowledged even by those within the judiciary, including the judges themselves. According to a recent survey conducted and published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), in collaboration with the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), Nigeria’s public officials received N721 billion in cash bribes in 2023, and judges topped the list of the recipients. Many experiences have revealed a landscape where integrity is often compromised, and the influence of money and connections overshadows the pursuit of justice. The stories of those who have suffered due to this corruption are numerous and heartbreaking, painting a picture of a system that is failing its citizens.

In this tumultuous environment, Dele Farotimi stands as a hero, a voice for the voiceless, and a champion for justice. His unwavering commitment to exposing the truth and advocating for reform is commendable and necessary. While the schemes of individuals attacking Dele Farotimi may seem formidable, they are ultimately transient and will soon fade into the annals of history. In contrast, Dele Farotimi’s legacy will endure, and he will emerge triumphant from this unjust persecution, not only as a symbol of resilience but also as a catalyst for change in a system that desperately needs it. His courage inspires hope for a future where justice is truly accessible to all, regardless of their financial means. CHRICED stands in solidarity with Dele Farotimi in his current travails.

Insecurity Persists Despite Huge Military Spending

In the outgoing year, the government continues failing to provide adequate security for lives and property across the nation. The activities of insurgent groups continue unabated in the Northeast; bandits continue to raid communities, kidnap people, rape women, and collect taxes from farmers across most states in the Northwest region of the country. IPOB and other militia groups continued to have their way in the Southeast, enforcing sit-at-home orders and freely attacking security formations without any serious consequences. In the Southwest, cases of organized crime, such as robbery and ritual killings, remain unacceptably high across the region. We also observed with grave concern a new wave of crime, characterized by attacks on critical national infrastructure, to disrupt supply. A prominent example is the series of attacks on electricity powerlines that disrupted supplies to the entire northern region of the country for weeks before it was restored. 

At CHRICED, we firmly believe that the government has no excuse for its failure to provide adequate security for lives and property across the country because the primary responsibility of government, as enshrined in section 14 of the 1999 constitution of Nigeria as amended, is to ensure the security and welfare of the people. There is a need for the government to justify the massive expenditure on security over the years by adequately securing its citizens and territory. A situation with increasing crime rates and rising security expenditure is totally unacceptable. A recent report by the National Bureau of Statistics stated that between May 2023 and April 2024, there were over 2 million kidnapping incidences across the country. The report also revealed that huge sums of money, totaling about N2.2 trillion, were paid as ransom to kidnappers. This report clearly indicates the helplessness of Nigerians in the hands of criminals due to the failure of the government to provide security for its citizens.

Tinubu Government Should Lead by Example

Considering the numerous and complex challenges currently confronting Nigerians, it is evident that government entities at all levels have not delivered effective solutions to alleviate the hardships endured by millions suffering under intolerable living conditions. The primary response from the President and his administration has been a continuous call for Nigerians to persevere through their difficulties, even as circumstances deteriorate daily. We urge the President and other elected officials to set a precedent by significantly reducing the costs associated with governance. It is untenable for the government to impose austerity measures on the populace while politicians indulge in extravagant lifestyles funded by public resources. A constructive initial step in 2025 would be for the President to downsize the government by adopting several recommendations outlined in the Oronsanye Report.

Furthermore, the President and his economic management team must devise more effective strategies to address the nation’s economic issues in 2025. The current trial-and-error methodology has proven ineffective and only exacerbates the situation. Addressing corruption and substantially curtailing waste in public spending is essential to liberate additional resources for initiatives that will have a direct impact on citizens’ lives.

Conclusion and Recommendations

• The Resource Centre for Human Rights and Civic Education (CHRICED) strongly urges the All-Progressives Congress (APC) government, led by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, to prioritize the well-being of poor, vulnerable Nigerians in the coming year. To effectively tackle the nation’s economic challenges, we propose that the government empowers the 774 local government areas as a foundational platform for economic recovery and industrial development. We advise that the administration prioritize clear structures and programs for social protection in Nigeria and shift from the knee-jerk, uncoordinated, politically-motivated handouts to his political friends in the name of poverty alleviation programs. 

• It is crucial that the government address the glaring wage disparity between political officeholders and civil servants. The current situation, where a Nigerian Senator receives a staggering N31 million Naira monthly while a civil servant struggles to make ends meet with a mere seventy thousand Naira (N70,000), is not only inequitable but also unacceptable. It is grossly unjust when those who work for 365 days cannot make ends meet while politicians who barely work for half the year continue to fatten on public resources. 

• Addressing the implications of the current trend towards a one-party system is imperative. Safeguarding Nigeria’s democratic framework requires a commitment to political diversity, robust opposition, and the protection of citizens’ rights to participate in the political process. Failure to do so could jeopardize the very foundations of democracy in the country, leading to a future where political power is concentrated in the hands of a few and the voices of the many are silenced. 

• We call upon the government to implement substantial judicial and police reforms to root out corrupt individuals undermining these vital institutions’ integrity. The place of justice in a thriving democracy and the linkages between justice and a functional, independent, and trusted judicial system cannot be overemphasized. Tinubu can carve a respectable legacy for himself by committing his administration to fixing the judiciary now.

• Furthermore, a comprehensive overhaul of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) is essential to safeguard our fledgling democracy and the nation from the threat of violent conflict. The integrity of our electoral processes must be fortified to ensure that the people’s will is respected and upheld. 

• In addition, we urge the government to protect and promote the rights to freedom of assembly and expression, as these are fundamental to a thriving democracy.

• Moreover, we call on civil society organizations to unite in solidarity to confront the misconduct and excesses of political officeholders. The challenges that lie ahead may be critical, and it is imperative that we do not allow impunity to take root. Today, Dele Farotimi may be facing the consequences of political excess; tomorrow, it could be any one of us. We must stand united in our commitment to accountability and justice.

Finally, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen of the press, we would like to extend our heartfelt gratitude for your unwavering support and trust in CHRICED throughout this year. Your faith in our mission and your encouragement have been invaluable to us, and we sincerely appreciate this partnership. It is a privilege to have you join us on our journey in 2023, and we look forward to continuing this meaningful collaboration.

As we move into 2025 in a few hours, we wish you warmth, joy, and unforgettable moments, whether spent with family or friends or enjoying a well-deserved break for yourself. May the New Year 2025 be filled with happiness and reflection as we collectively strive for a better future for all Nigerians.